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Måned: september 2016

Started new sports betting money project

I have mention earlier that one of my revenue streams was sports betting.

The first association most people get with sports betting is that it is gambling and per definition the house ALWAYS wins.

This is mostly true but there is a difference between the traditional gambler and the person who invests in sports betting. The sports betting investor can in many ways be compared to the professional day trader or poker player. Every single bet is placed where there there is an edge compared to the marked expectations and the odds on the event. Proper money management is essential also. Exactly the same goes with day trading. The day trader takes a short term position where it is expected that the probability of increase in price is larger than the probability of a decrease.

sports-betting

Why sports betting is interesting as a money project?

Most my money is placed in dividend stocks and apartments. So there are not that much extra cash to invest. This is where sports betting is very interesting, same goes for poker and probably also day trading (I have never tried this).

You don´t really need that much cash!

There are 1000s of matches every week, so betting/investing in a particual sports event is very short term. Here is an example:

  • You wager on 20 matches a week. All these matches are played that particular week.
  • €100 per match.
  • The €100 represents 2% of your bank roll (fairly conservative), so total bank roll is €5000
  • You expect a 105% yield on wagered bets

This gives:

  • 1040 matches per year
  • Total investment per year: €100.400
  • Expected profits: €5200
  • ROI on investment (start bank roll): 104%!

 

For good manament of bookmarker accounts you will not need to have your whole bankroll deposited at the bookmakers. You probably just need a maximum of €2000 in use at one time.

The downfall:

Achieving a 105% yield is extremely difficult and will take a lot of time investigation matches etc. The top sports bettors have a yield of 105-110% every year.

My strategy

I don´t have the time or knowledge to find good matches. I have instead investigated different betting tips sites for good tipsters and found a number of experts who have a long track record of profit. Their predictions are followed almost blindly.

8-10 different bookmakers are used to ensure best odds on the events wagered on. Most bookmakers have sign up bonuses, which can be quite significante – especially in the beginning.

Progress so far (started 5. August 2016).

  • Wagered on 214 events
  • Wagered a total of €9.011
  • Won 121 bets
  • Lost 90
  • Profit before sign up bonuses: €972
  • Yield: 111%
  • Profit from sign up bonuses: $691

Most notable is of cause that the yield has been 111%. I hoped for 105% and cannot expect that 111% will continue over time.

Bonuses from bookmakers will be much lower going forward.

 

Learnings so far:

  • I try not to follow progress every day. There are many ups and downs. Many matches are decided in last minuts etc. hence can be stressfull.
  • Following bank roll management is essential, and I will keep paying conservative and will first consider increasing bet size when I have doubled my bankroll (€2000 in profit).
  • I type down all bets into a spreadsheet every 2 weeks.

 

 

 

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Updated Net Worth – September 2016

(bloggen var indtil midt juli 2017 på engelsk)

Updated my net worth this evening. It is the 4th update this year.

I have a number of savings and revenue streams, which go up and down independently. Therefore I try not to look at this number every month. Only the things I can take action on. 

For example I only look at stocks 1-2 times a month. I focus on dividend stocks and have selected companies I hope to keep for 10 years. Therefore not really any point in looking at day to day developments.

Total net worth is EUR 260.522.  

The goal is EUR 525.000, so I am very close at the half way mark!!!

In May my reported net worth was EUR 227.349, so an increase of 15% in just 4 months.

 Maj 2013Februar 2016Maj 2016August 2016September 2016
Total160.000 kr1.612.492 kr1.719.750 kr1.867.717 kr1.973.015 kr
Pension20.000 kr151.531 kr160.194 kr187.964 kr208.744 kr
Friværdi i privat bolig0 kr667.238 kr667.238 kr773.730 kr786.730 kr
Freelance / konsulent0 kr0 kr0 kr26.240 kr39.765 kr
Ejendomsportefølje 1200.000 kr846.500 kr902.549 kr879.300 kr884.204 kr
Ejendomsportefølje 20 kr35.000 kr57.500 kr57.500 kr101.159 kr
Privat-60.000 kr-87.777 kr-67.731-57.017 kr-47.586 kr

 A brief sum up:
  • Pension: Stocks have been good the last month also I have topped up pension to max out the total allowed per year.
  • House equity: I have not adjusted the value of the house but have paid of some debt and overestimated the tax bill;)
  • Consultant company: there are no expenses in this company, so all revenue is accumulated. Money will be used help pay of debt on apartment this December.
  • Real estate company 1: this company owns the first two apartments I purchased. I have actually lowered the value of one of the apartments. I like to be conservative. The monthly surplus is sent to p2p lending accounts, where I currently receive 12% interests.
  • Real estate company 2: we made a really good buy this month. This apartment was way under marked, so this had helped. Also apartments give a monthly cashflow, which is added to the value.
  • Private account: at its best for many years! The sports betting project has help here also I am saving a lot of money after I sold the car. Howevery my private account probably won’t go any lower because it is mainly contains my student loan. This load is practially free, so that is the last debt I will ever pay back;)

All in all I am happy to see the possitive effect of multible income streams. I have to find some addition streams to reach my target before I am 40. If all assets just cash flow as they should (no help from Mr Marked) I will be approximately EUR 100.000 short of my goal. Since you cannot count on Mr Marked I will have to find that extra earnings from somewhere else.

 

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